The recession is over.

Where are the streamers and fireworks?

Don’t count on any soon. One of the most painful legacies of the recession — unemployment — remains.

The recession began in December 2007 after the U.S. gross domestic product shrank for two consecutive quarters. While the Commerce Department just compiled the data Thursday, the recession unofficially ended the last day of September, at the end of a quarter with 3.5 percent GDP growth.

It remains unofficial until the National Bureau of Economic Research, a panel of academics, gives its blessing. It generally does so well after the fact.

There are several footnotes to the end of the worst recession in 70 years, most the result of the federal government’s efforts.

The cash for clunkers program had a significant impact on consumer spending, the main driver of GDP growth, as did tax incentives for home buyers.

The question, therefore, is whether the federal spending merely created a blip in GDP, or if it jump-started the economy.

Either way, said Macke Mauldin, don’t expect employment levels to bounce back soon.

Mauldin is president of Sheffield-based Bank Independent and on the board of directors of the Birmingham branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

“It’s going to be a slow job recovery from everything I’m hearing,” he said, stressing he is not speaking for the Fed.

So far he is right. Morgan County’s unemployment rate in September — while GDP was growing — was 10.4 percent.

Limestone County’s rate was 9.3 percent. Lawrence County’s rate was 13.6 percent. For each county, that was more than double the September 2008 unemployment rate.

Mauldin said the unemployment levels have a lot to do with small businesses, meaning those with 50 or fewer employees.

“They historically provide more than one-third of job growth,” he explained. “In previous recessions, they have accounted for 10 to 15 percent of job loss. In this recession, they’re accounting for in excess of 45 percent of the job loss.”

This recession hit small businesses hard, Mauldin said, because it followed a period of rapid growth.

Many small businesses were highly leveraged or cash poor because they were growing to meet increasing demand.

“Small companies are in survival mode,” Mauldin said. “To survive they’ve had to become more efficient.”

In the near term, Mauldin said, small businesses will increase overtime before they hire.

“They want to make sure the increase in sales is sustainable and profitable before they start adding employees,” he said.

There is an emotional component to the small employers’ reluctance to hire more employees.

“Typically your small businesses are probably more morally or ethically committed to their employees than some of these big companies are,” Mauldin said. “They take a lot more responsibility for hiring and letting people go. They’ll be a little more reactive (to economic growth) than proactive.”

Benefits of downturn

Mauldin said he is optimistic that a rebound is coming.

For all the downsides of a weak dollar, he said, it could continue to help U.S. companies that export.

A sign of that benefit in Decatur may be 3M Co.’s resumption last week of a $2.2 million expansion of its optical film plant that the company stopped when the economy went opaque.

U.S. exports jumped 21.4 percent in the third quarter, the most since 1996.

Mauldin also expects growth in companies that benefit from government contracts.

Decatur is seeing that, with United Launch Alliance last week beginning a $7.9 million expansion made necessary to accommodate Atlas V rocket production.

In Morgan and Limestone counties, the Base Realignment and Closure process will drive economic growth.

“We’re in a lot better shape than almost all these communities across the country,” Mauldin said. “It’s not easy here, it’s not painless, but we’re in high cotton compared to many communities.”